Prophet T. E.
to you the Warning of the Great Plague which has been unleashed upon
this earth in the
May 2005 issue of The Endtime Messenger. In 2003,
the report had come out that there had been an outbreak of bird flu in
Vietnam that was spread by fowl. G-d spoke to me at this time that
there would be a plague that would scourge the world. The following
year the L-rd spoke again that the afore mentioned plague would take
millions of lives. In the 1st week of February 2005, the
L-rd spoke through a vision instructing me to begin to prophecy the coming of
this great plague. The L-rd also instructed me as to how the believers
of this world could escape this plague and the plagues that would
indeed follow. As I have taught in the past, G-d always works on both
brought to my attention over the weekend that CNN news had published a
report Friday, June 24, 2005 warning of a flu pandemic which could
kill a half million in the U.S. Due to copyright laws, I could not post the
article here but it may be found at the following link:
further research I found the following news release:
U.S. Could Face Half a Million Deaths and Nearly 67 Million Cases if
Pandemic Flu Emerges, Stockpile of Antivirals Insufficient
contacts: Laura Segal (202) 223-9870 x 278 or firstname.lastname@example.org or Michael
Earls (202) 223-9870 x 273 or email@example.com
WASHINGTON, June 24, 2005 –
America’s Health (TFAH) today released state-by-state projections that
found over half a million Americans could die and over 2.3 million could
be hospitalized if a moderately severe strain of a pandemic flu virus
hits the U.S. Additionally, based on the model estimates, 66.9 million
Americans are at risk of contracting the disease.
also found that the U.S. currently only has stockpiled 2.3 million
courses and has placed orders for an additional three million courses of
antiviral pharmaceuticals (produced as Tamiflu by Roche
Pharmaceuticals), which would likely be available in 2006. This would be
enough to cover 5.3 million Americans, leaving over 60 million who could
be infected and would not be able to receive medication before an
effective vaccine to combat the flu strain is identified and produced.
numerical projections are included in a new report, “A Killer Flu?
‘Inevitable’ Epidemic Could Kill Millions.”
“This is not
a drill. This is not a planning exercise. This is for real,” said
Shelley A. Hearne, DrPH, Executive Director of TFAH. “Americans are
being placed needlessly at risk. The U.S. must take fast and furious
action to prepare for a possible pandemic outbreak here at home.”
Government Reform Committee has held several hearings over the last few
years to let people know that the flu is not something to take lightly,”
said U.S. Congressman Tom Davis (R-VA), Chairman of the House Government
Reform Committee. “TFAH's report clearly demonstrates that the emergence
of a pandemic flu could exact a tremendous toll on U.S. health and
economic stability. In order to identify problem areas and prioritize
planning and response efforts, the Committee will hold a hearing next
week on the threats posed by a potential flu pandemic.”
will be testifying Thursday, June 30th, before the House Government
Reform Committee on U.S. preparedness for pandemic and annual flu. Some
of the TFAH report’s other findings include:
estimates find that over two million Americans may need to be
hospitalized during a pandemic outbreak, the U.S. currently only has
approximately 965,256 staffed hospital beds.
The U.S. has
not adequately planned for the disruption a flu pandemic could cause to
the economy, daily life, food and supply distributions, or homeland
lags in pandemic preparations compared to Great Britain and Canada based
on an examination of leadership, vaccine development, vaccine and
antiviral planning, health care system surge capacity planning,
coordination between public and private sectors, and emergency
provides a series of detailed recommendations to help ensure the U.S. is
better prepared regardless of whether a pandemic occurs as soon as this
year or in several years. With a crisis looming, the U.S. plan for the
pandemic should be finalized and the President should designate an
official with authority to coordinate the U.S. response across federal
agencies. Other top level recommendations include taking:
steps of outbreak tracking, stockpiling medical supplies, and developing
emergency communications plans;
steps of stockpiling additional antivirals and developing surge capacity
plans for hospitals and health care providers; and
steps to increase vaccine production and the development of new
technologies for vaccines.
highest populated state, California could be impacted the hardest, with
over 60,875 deaths,
hospitalized, and over eight million infected people. With 5.3 million
courses of antivirals evenly distributed among states, California could
face a shortfall of over 7.4 million people infected who could not
receive the medication. As the least populated state, Alaska could have
866 deaths, 4,558 hospitalized, 152,328 cases, and an antiviral
shortfall of 140,263.
To view Chart click below:
Potential Pandemic Influenza
Deaths & Hospitalizations from a Mid-Level Pandemic Flu
TFAH’s analysis, based on the estimates of the severity of the current
strain circulating in Asia, follows warnings issued by the Centers for
Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the World Health Organization
(WHO) about the severity of the pandemic, “killer flu” threat. The
projections are based on a modeling program developed by the CDC using
WHO estimates that approximately 25
percent of countries’ populations could become infected and
descriptions of the severity of the strain as likely to be in the range
between the levels of the extremely severe 1918 influenza pandemic and
the relatively mild 1968 pandemic. Some scientists believe the current
avian flu strain is on the more severe side of the possible range. The
more mild and more severe estimates are also included in the appendix of
TFAH’s report. TFAH’s calculations and related flu materials are
available online at:
Trust for America’s Health is a non-profit, non-partisan organization
dedicated to saving lives by
protecting the health of every community and working to make disease
prevention a national priority.
also like encourage you to read the following interviews posted by PBS
Online News Hour: [Highlights are mine.]
Online News Hour: Thialand Prepares
for Deadly Avian Flue –
April 7, 2005
DE SAM LAZARO: Chickens and ducks have the run of the place in much of
rural Thailand. Some are treated like pets; some even are treated like
royalty. Fighting cocks are prized like race horses, part of the local
economy, very much part of the culture. Poultry is also a staple in Thai
diets and until recently, a major export.
this has made it difficult for Thailand and neighboring countries to
fight what's called bird or avian flu.
The virus that causes it is carried by migratory birds and waterfowl,
like ducks, which are not harmed by it. It was first detected in
Northeast Asia in the mid-'90s, when it had moved to chickens, which are
Authorities in Hong Kong, Korea, and Japan appeared to contain the flu
by destroying entire flocks where the virus was detected. But last year,
a more potent avian flu virus reemerged in Southeast Asia ravaging
thousands of both farm and free-range chickens.
After the first human
cases, the Thai government destroyed
millions more birds. Several dozen
people have been infected in Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam,
three quarters of them fatally.
In all but one case, the disease has spread from birds to humans, humans
who had long exposure to the virus, like poultry farm workers.
scientists worry the virus, which is called H5N1, is always mutating or
evolving and may soon begin to move easily from person to person just
like regular flu. Dr. William Aldis is with the World Health
WILLIAM ALDIS: We have good reason to fear that if the H5N1 virus that's
now widely established in chicken and
duck and wildfowl population in probably ten countries, that it
would take only a very small genetic change or modification in that
virus to make it rapidly transmissible to people.
DE SAM LAZARO: That, he said, would quickly trigger a worldwide
WILLIAM ALDIS: The movement of people around the world and the movement
of infectious agents around the world means that the risk facing one
country is facing all countries almost equally. We saw that with SARS. I
would say the difference between SARS and avian influenza is the stakes
are much higher
DE SAM LAZARO: Late in 2002, an outbreak of SARS, Severe Acute
Respiratory Syndrome, began in southern China but spread rapidly across
the world killing a tenth of the 8,000 people affected. The toll from
avian flu could dwarf SARS and even the 1918 Spanish Flu that killed 20
million, according to Michael Osterholm epidemiologist at the university
MICHAEL OSTERHOLM: If one takes a look at the 1918 pandemic that swept
around the world, literally in weeks, and extrapolate those number of
deaths then to what we might expect to see today, we could easily see
1.7 million deaths in the United States in one year and up to 360
million deaths worldwide.
DE SAM LAZARO: Public health experts
say it's no longer a question of if, but rather when a major bird flu
pandemic will hit. The challenge now is to try to contain it so
that so the world can become better prepared when it hits.
Thailand's approach to avian flu is being closely watched by World
Health Organization and by U.S. experts. The country has long had a
system of village health volunteers. Each is in charge of checking on
the health of about ten neighbors.
Throughout the country, they're now being deployed to look closely for
bird flu. Volunteers try to survey bird populations and must report any
ill health in animals or people to local authorities. Sick birds are
tested for avian flu and positive findings bring a rapid response.
SPOKESPERSON: He says this is the pit where we buried the chickens,
ducks and geese.
DE SAM LAZARO: In this small village, headman Vicharn Wanna says took
about an hour to round up all the chickens from the village's 137
households. Sick and healthy, they were all destroyed.
SPOKESPERSON: For each chicken they get 50 baht or about $1.25.
DE SAM LAZARO: Even with compensation, Thai farmers and peasants don't
fully recover their losses when birds are culled, especially if they are
fighting cocks which can fetch up to $1,000. There's worry that owners
may be reluctant to report sick poultry. But Thai officials say they are
making some progress. Dr. Supamit Chunsuttiwat is with the Ministry of
SUPAMIT CHUNSUTTIWAT, Thai Ministry of Public Health: In first round, we
had 12 cases; in second round we had five. And since then, the
surveillance on both sides, on the animal side and on the human side,
have been carried out at full scale, up until now. We have been on high
alert to detect the cases in humans as best as possible and we haven't
found a case since October up until now.
DE SAM LAZARO: In two border provinces, the surveillance has been
intensified in a special joint project with the U.S. Centers for Disease
in Sakaeo province on Thailand's border with Cambodia, the entire
population, over a half million people, is being watched for any signs
of respiratory disease or pneumonia. Specimens are analyzed both here
and at the CDC in Atlanta, where X-rays are sent electronically.
Epidemiologist Sonja Olsen likens it to a listening post for diseases in
their earliest stages.
SONJA OLSEN: It may be possible to actually stop an outbreak before it
were a pandemic. I think that's sort of a new way of thinking. In the
past we thought when the next pandemic influenza hits, you know, we will
just try to do the best we can to prevent, you know, additional deaths
or do what we can. I think now the thinking is if we can identify it at
the source, and stop it, then maybe we can potentially prevent a
DE SAM LAZARO: No one's sure it will work, but one reason for optimism
is that unlike the SARS outbreak, countries are far more willing to
admit early on that they might have a problem, according to Dr. Scott
Dowell who heads CDC's Thailand office.
SCOTT DOWELL: At the beginning of bird flu epidemic, we saw some of the
old approach of, "Well, we're not sure this is the Bird Flu," from
various countries, a failure to acknowledge or confirm the problem.
was when it was viewed as primarily an economic issue or an agricultural
problem. Very quickly when you saw it move to human populations, it very
quickly changed to a really transparent response from most countries in
this region, and I think the lesson from SARS helped with that.
DE SAM LAZARO: But communication is just one part of preparing for a
pandemic and Dr. Dowell worries there may not be time.
SCOTT DOWELL: Again, if the question is, "Are we ready in this part of
the world to respond to a pandemic," I think the answer has to be no.
DE SAM LAZARO: And that applies not just to Southeast Asia, says Dr.
SUPAMIT CHUNSUTTIWAT: If a pandemic comes in a few months, no one is
able to help himself. No country is in the position of better enough
preparedness, even the United States or Europe.
DE SAM LAZARO: He says Thailand is working with neighbors and the World
Health Organization to develop a region-wide strategy to respond to
SUPAMIT CHUNSUTTIWAT: If we were lucky enough, we would be able to work
together to come up with some vaccines or anti-virals before the
pandemic strikes us.
DE SAM LAZARO: Worldwide stockpiles of antiviral drugs are well short of
what's needed. Also, it would also take months after an actual human
outbreak to develop a vaccine. In an upcoming article for the New
England Journal of Medicine, Osterholm argues a plan is urgently needed.
MICHAEL OSTERHOLM: How are we going to
handle our everyday lives here in this country to make sure that we can
deal with sick people? What do we do to assure that people continue to
have a food supply once transportation is shut down? How will we manage
the basic business of life when up to half the population may become ill
and 5 percent of those will die? Those plans have to be made right now.
DE SAM LAZARO: It is ironic, scientists say, that sophisticated
molecular biology today can help anticipate an epidemic, and yet the
world remains as vulnerable to devastation as it was a century ago.
Online News Hour: Dead Geese in China
Prompt Fears Over Bird Flu Pandemic –
SUAREZ: Throughout the past week, there have been new alarms and new
calls to action about a possible flu pandemic. It all stems from a
deadly flu strain passed from birds to humans. The strain, known as
H5-N1, and more commonly referred to as Avian Flu, turned up again this
winter in Southeast Asia, leading to new cases in Vietnam, Thailand and
far, there have been 97 recorded human cases and 53 deaths since 2004.
While those numbers are not so large now, the World Health Organization
reports the virus is continuing to mutate in ways that makes it
increasingly infectious to people. And today the scientific journal
Nature devoted much of its issue to the subject, warning of a potential
pandemic that could kill millions if preparations did not improve.
closer look at all of this, I'm joined by Dr. Anthony Fauci, the
director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.
He wrote a commentary in today's issue of Nature. And Laurie Garrett --
she runs the global health program at the Council on Foreign Relations.
Fauci, one of the core issues, I guess, for understanding this disease
is what we know about how it gets passed from birds to humans and
whether humans pass it to other humans. Do we have a good handle on that
ANTHONY FAUCI: We know it has already
jumped from birds to humans, and that's the thing that is the first part
of the real concern, because this is a virus, the H5-N1, which the human
society has had no prior experience with. So there's no residual
or baseline immunity. It's a brand-new thing for them, which means that
the protection that we generally get from year to year.
right now this season the regular seasonal flu was an H3-N2, was a
little bit different than last year's H3-N2, a little different than the
previous year, but we have cumulative experience. The H5-N1 is a major
shift. As we call it, those little changes are drifts. And what happens
is that you get chickens infected and this virus has adapted itself to
jump from chickens to humans in Asia.
biggest focus right now is in Vietnam. When it gets efficiency in going
from human to human, and viruses tend
to evolve, to go toward that which will help propagate it --
there have been now 97 infections, as you mentioned, and 53 deaths. So
it's still inefficient in going from bird to human.
There have been two well-documented
cases of human-to-human.
So by mutation or
adapting itself, it very likely could get better and better in its
efficiency in going from human to human. Once that happens, Ray, then
you have a really bad situation, because if it spreads widely, you have
people who have no prior experience, so they don't have any baseline
immunity to respond rapidly.
The other important
point is that this is a very highly lethal virus; it's killed 53 out of
the 97 documented cases. It's unlike what we see in the regular flu,
which is less than 1 percent. So
the potential for this being a really
serious problem is there, and nothing that's happening is telling
us that it's going in the other direction. It keeps going in the
direction that is making us quite anxious.
It's increasing its host range,
and it's changing ways, there are more clusters that are not
explainable. So we have a very serious
SUAREZ: Laurie Garrett, what's the best scientific opinion if you survey
about how much of the threat Avian Flu poses worldwide and Asia in
LAURIE GARRETT: Well, certainly in the public health community and in
the community of virologists that know a lot about flu, concern is very,
very high. I was
just at the World Health Assembly, which is the governing body of the
World Health Organization, for a week of meetings in Geneva, and
everybody was talking about flu.
It's the number-one
concern on the minds of most global health experts right now.
And there are a number of reasons why this year
we're more worried than we have been in
my lifetime. We've seen this H5-N1 strain, which is unlike any strain,
as Dr. Fauci was explaining, human
beings have ever seen before. So you don't have antibodies to it;
I don't have antibodies to it.
As far as we know,
nobody has antibodies to it. We've seen
this thing go through a series of mutational changes over the last two,
three years, and just very recently it's been confirmed
-- actually just today -- confirmed by
the Indonesian government that they've identified an outbreak of it in
pigs in Indonesia.
is very worrying, because what this means is that the virus may have
found a way to infect another species of mammals, big difference from
infecting birds, Ray. If it starts
infecting pigs and other mammals, then it's a quick leap to whatever
genetic change is necessary for this virus to evolve into the kind of
flu that is incredibly contagious from person to person.
it's important to understand, when we talk about contagious viruses --
and I know lots of people have heard of the so-called scary ones like
Ebola and Marburg -- these are actually really hard to get compared to
flu. This influenza virus can sit on a
doorknob for six days and still be infectious to somebody who comes
along six days later; someone rubs their hand on that doorknob
and, as we all do, happens to infect themselves.
so infectious, so contagious that at the World Health Organization
meetings I was at, people are really tearing their hair out trying to
figure out how we could control it, how could can stop it from spreading
all over the world. Our host of classic ways of dealing with public
health problems of various kinds is very, very limited in this case.
SUAREZ: Well, is there, Dr. Fauci, a public health approach to seal up
something like a flu in a geographical area? Laurie Garrett mentioned
Ebola and Marburg. Those haven't spread worldwide. Is there a way with a
flu like this to just cordon it off?
ANTHONY FAUCI: Yes and no. Because, as Laurie said very accurately,
it spreads so rapidly that it isn't the
kind of thing that's easily containable. But, having said that,
good public health measures of identification, reporting accurately and
in a transparent way, when you get the opportunity to isolate people,
and the president himself signed a quarantine, an executive order to be
able to quarantine and add pandemic flu to the list of quarantinable
it's a combination of public health measures, coordination among
nations, vaccine and drugs. Now, the problem that we're facing, we have
assumed that this is serious enough that we are already in trials of an
H5-N1 vaccine that we started in April. We've already completed the
first two stages of it in healthy adults. We're going to analyze the
data for safety and what's the right dose because, unlike the regular
flu vaccine, where you know you can give one dose and get a good
we haven't seen this before, it is likely that we'll have to use a
higher dose and/or two vaccinations. When this data comes, we'll move to
the elderly and then we'll go to children.
The problem is that the
vaccine-manufacturing capacity of the world is only anywhere between 300
million and 450 million. There are six billion people in the world.
have a problem with capacity that even if we don't -- and it is likely
we don't -- even though we're very concerned, Laurie and I and many
others, that we'll have a problem soon, if we don't have it this year,
this isn't something that's going to just disappear. This is here to
stay. We will have a pandemic sometime.
It may be this year, next year, the year later.
what we're concerned about is that we've got to build up the capacity to
have countermeasures in the form of vaccines and therapeutics as opposed
to saying, "We got through this year; let's just go back to square one."
We have a vaccine production industry that is in fact very, very
fragile, and we actually discussed this on this show not too long ago
when we were dealing with the shortages of flu vaccine from the previous
SUAREZ: So, Laurie Garrett, does the world end up on the horns of a
paradox again where those countries that are most able to provide
vaccine to their people are actually the places least in threat of
having an Avian Flu outbreak, while the places that are most threatened
are the least able to respond?
LAURIE GARRETT: It's worse than that, Ray. I mean, the problem is when
you sit down with a global organization like WHO, 192 member countries,
everybody passes a resolution saying, "We're
very worried about pandemic flu; we're terribly concerned this could be
the year that we see a flu that could take millions and millions of
then you pass a series of resolutions. You must stockpile drugs, you
must try to make vaccine; you should have a national plan of action. All
those are great to talk about in the context of a wealthy country like
the United States or any of the European countries.
what do you say to Chad? What do you say to Tanzania? What do you say to
Vietnam? Poor countries can't muster up the kinds of plans we're talking
about. And worse yet, in 1918, we did not have hundreds of millions of
people with immune deficiency in the world -- immune deficiency either
because they were elderly, cancer patients, or probably most significant
because they had HIV disease and did not have access to drugs to treat
the HIV disease.
basically have the equivalent of a hillside of dry brush, when you think
about Africa right now and the amount of HIV there, where you're
lighting a match at one end and just watching that fire burn up that
hill. That's what pandemic flu might be when it hits Africa.
SUAREZ: Let me get a quick response on that point from Dr. Fauci. Are we
getting ready enough in advance to help stave off some of the worst
ANTHONY FAUCI: There's no doubt this is the number-one priority of
secretary Levitt in the Department of Health and Human Services rights
now. We meet virtually daily about this. I mentioned the vaccine trial.
We've stockpiled Tamiflu, which is the drug that this particular microbe
is sensitive to. We don't have enough. It's 2.3 million treatment
need a lot more, and we'll get a lot more. So we're being very proactive
about it. Again, being proactive is what we need to do, but this is such
an enormous problem involving the entire global community, as Laurie
mentioned, that we alone, even though we are far ahead of others in this
regard, we alone are not going to solve the problem. It's got to be
SUAREZ: Anthony Fauci, Laurie Garrett, thank you both.
News Today spoke about the concerns of our government's subcommittee in
the following article:
Preparedness for Avian Flu - US House Energy
and Commerce Subcommittee Hearing Highlights Concerns
A US Government Accountability Office official on Thursday at a House
Energy and Commerce...
hearing said that the United States
remains unprepared for a potential avian flu pandemic, the
Journal-Constitution reports. According to Marcia Crosse,
health care director at GAO, an
draft pandemic plan completed in August
2004 does not include instructions on management of a limited supply of
vaccine, whether to restrict travel, or impose quarantines or deployment
of federal resources (Nesmith, Atlanta Journal-Constitution,
5/27). Crosse also said hospitals remain unprepared to address local
epidemics. Health officials interviewed by GAO said that a pandemic
could affect the capacity of hospitals if they have to close certain
sections to serve as isolation wards, she added. "Moreover, a shortage
in work force could increase during an influenza pandemic because higher
disease rates could result in high rates of absenteeism among health
care workers," Crosse said (CQ
CDC Director Julie
Gerberding acknowledged that the pandemic plan requires additional
provisions, such as instructions on whether to isolate or quarantine
infected individuals and those with whom they have had contact. Bruce
Gellin, director of the
National Vaccine Program
Office at HHS, said that the department will complete the
pandemic plan this summer (Atlanta Journal-Constitution, 5/27).
According to Gerberding, health
officials have found "isolated clusters" of avian flu infections
worldwide and continue to work to determine whether
human-to-human transmission has occurred (CQ HealthBeat, 5/26).
Anthony Fauci, director of the
National Institute of Allergy
and Infectious Diseases at
NIH, said that the
agency has begun to test an
experimental avian flu vaccine that should "provide some degree of
protection" and that CDC has ordered more than two million doses
of the vaccine (Atlanta Journal-Constitution, 5/27). NIH plans to
complete tests on the safety and effectiveness of the vaccine by this
summer. However, in the event of a pandemic, "it isn't as if overnight
we're going to be able to get a vaccine for everyone who needs a
vaccine" because of issues with production. Gerberding added that "we
would have to count on a six-month window before we have full-scale
global vaccine production" (CQ HealthBeat, 5/26). Rep. Mike
Ferguson (R-N.J.) also said that CDC should have ordered more than 2.3
million doses of the antiviral medication Tamiflu, which appears
effective against avian flu. "I'm sure you will agree with me that that
is a mere pittance. It's nothing near what we will need to deal with a
flu epidemic. We're staring down a
loaded gun," he said. Gerberding said that
Tamiflu is only effective when taken in
the first 48 hours after infections, adding, "Many people don't even
know they have influenza during the first two days" (Atlanta
Journal-Constitution, 5/27). She also said that CDC might order
additional doses of Tamiflu in the future (CQ HealthBeat, 5/26).
GAO report on flu is available
online. Note: you
must have Adobe Acrobat Reader to view the report.
concluding observations, Marcia Crosse, Director, Health Care warned
Government Accountability Office
Subcommittee on Health,
Energy and Commerce,
we have been urging the department to complete its pandemic
plan. A draft
plan was issued in August 2004, with a 60-day period for
comment, but as of this week [May
the plan had not been finalized.
the federal government and the states to work through
as how vaccine will be purchased, distributed, and
how population groups will be prioritized for vaccination, what
quarantine authorities or travel restrictions may need to be invoked,
federal resources should be deployed before we are in a time of
are desperately scrambling to push the governments of this world into
action. Even our government is lacking in preparation for this
potential pandemic. They are being encouraged to stockpile Tamiflu,
which may be an effective treatment option while scientists work on a
vaccine. It would require about 70 million doses to cover 25% of the
U.S. population. Only 5.3 million doses have been ordered.
His mercy is warning us to prepare. Even those of the scientific world
realize the desperate need to prepare, although they know the death
toll will be great.
LET THOSE THAT HATH AN
WHAT THE SPIRIT IS