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Scientific Warnings


Coming Plague



Prophet T. E. Deckard


I brought to you the Warning of the Great Plague which has been unleashed upon this earth in the May 2005 issue of The Endtime Messenger.  In 2003, the report had come out that there had been an outbreak of bird flu in Vietnam that was spread by fowl. G-d spoke to me at this time that there would be a plague that would scourge the world. The following year the L-rd spoke again that the afore mentioned plague would take millions of lives. In the 1st week of February 2005, the L-rd spoke through a vision instructing me to begin to prophecy the coming of this great plague. The L-rd also instructed me as to how the believers of this world could escape this plague and the plagues that would indeed follow. As I have taught in the past, G-d always works on both ends


It was brought to my attention over the weekend that CNN news had published a report  Friday, June 24, 2005 warning of a flu pandemic which could kill a half million in the U.S. Due to copyright laws, I could not post the article here but it may be found at the following link:



Upon further research I found the following news release:


U.S. Could Face Half a Million Deaths and Nearly 67 Million Cases if

Pandemic Flu Emerges, Stockpile of Antivirals Insufficient

Media contacts: Laura Segal (202) 223-9870 x 278 or or Michael Earls (202) 223-9870 x 273 or

WASHINGTON, June 24, 2005 – Trust for America’s Health (TFAH) today released state-by-state projections that found over half a million Americans could die and over 2.3 million could be hospitalized if a moderately severe strain of a pandemic flu virus hits the U.S. Additionally, based on the model estimates, 66.9 million Americans are at risk of contracting the disease.


The study also found that the U.S. currently only has stockpiled 2.3 million courses and has placed orders for an additional three million courses of antiviral pharmaceuticals (produced as Tamiflu by Roche Pharmaceuticals), which would likely be available in 2006. This would be enough to cover 5.3 million Americans, leaving over 60 million who could be infected and would not be able to receive medication before an effective vaccine to combat the flu strain is identified and produced.


TFAH’s numerical projections are included in a new report, “A Killer Flu? ‘Inevitable’ Epidemic Could Kill Millions.”


“This is not a drill. This is not a planning exercise. This is for real,” said Shelley A. Hearne, DrPH, Executive Director of TFAH. “Americans are being placed needlessly at risk. The U.S. must take fast and furious action to prepare for a possible pandemic outbreak here at home.”


“The Government Reform Committee has held several hearings over the last few years to let people know that the flu is not something to take lightly,” said U.S. Congressman Tom Davis (R-VA), Chairman of the House Government Reform Committee. “TFAH's report clearly demonstrates that the emergence of a pandemic flu could exact a tremendous toll on U.S. health and economic stability. In order to identify problem areas and prioritize planning and response efforts, the Committee will hold a hearing next week on the threats posed by a potential flu pandemic.”


Dr. Hearne will be testifying Thursday, June 30th, before the House Government Reform Committee on U.S. preparedness for pandemic and annual flu. Some of the TFAH report’s other findings include:


·         While estimates find that over two million Americans may need to be hospitalized during a pandemic outbreak, the U.S. currently only has approximately 965,256 staffed hospital beds.

·         The U.S. has not adequately planned for the disruption a flu pandemic could cause to the economy, daily life, food and supply distributions, or homeland security.

·         The U.S. lags in pandemic preparations compared to Great Britain and Canada based on an examination of leadership, vaccine development, vaccine and antiviral planning, health care system surge capacity planning, coordination between public and private sectors, and emergency communications planning.


TFAH provides a series of detailed recommendations to help ensure the U.S. is better prepared regardless of whether a pandemic occurs as soon as this year or in several years. With a crisis looming, the U.S. plan for the pandemic should be finalized and the President should designate an official with authority to coordinate the U.S. response across federal agencies. Other top level recommendations include taking:


·         Immediate steps of outbreak tracking, stockpiling medical supplies, and developing emergency communications plans;

·         Intermediate steps of stockpiling additional antivirals and developing surge capacity plans for hospitals and health care providers; and

·         Longer range steps to increase vaccine production and the development of new technologies for vaccines.


As the highest populated state, California could be impacted the hardest, with over 60,875 deaths,

273,090 hospitalized, and over eight million infected people. With 5.3 million courses of antivirals evenly distributed among states, California could face a shortfall of over 7.4 million people infected who could not receive the medication. As the least populated state, Alaska could have 866 deaths, 4,558 hospitalized, 152,328 cases, and an antiviral shortfall of 140,263.


To view Chart click below:

Potential Pandemic Influenza Deaths & Hospitalizations from a Mid-Level Pandemic Flu


TFAH’s analysis, based on the estimates of the severity of the current strain circulating in Asia, follows warnings issued by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the World Health Organization (WHO) about the severity of the pandemic, “killer flu” threat. The projections are based on a modeling program developed by the CDC using WHO estimates that approximately 25 percent of countries’ populations could become infected and descriptions of the severity of the strain as likely to be in the range between the levels of the extremely severe 1918 influenza pandemic and the relatively mild 1968 pandemic. Some scientists believe the current avian flu strain is on the more severe side of the possible range. The more mild and more severe estimates are also included in the appendix of TFAH’s report. TFAH’s calculations and related flu materials are available online at:


Trust for America’s Health is a non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to saving lives by

protecting the health of every community and working to make disease prevention a national priority.


I would also like encourage you to read the following interviews posted by PBS Online News Hour: [Highlights are mine.]


Online News Hour: Thialand Prepares for Deadly Avian Flue –


April 7, 2005

FRED DE SAM LAZARO: Chickens and ducks have the run of the place in much of rural Thailand. Some are treated like pets; some even are treated like royalty. Fighting cocks are prized like race horses, part of the local economy, very much part of the culture. Poultry is also a staple in Thai diets and until recently, a major export.

All this has made it difficult for Thailand and neighboring countries to fight what's called bird or avian flu. The virus that causes it is carried by migratory birds and waterfowl, like ducks, which are not harmed by it. It was first detected in Northeast Asia in the mid-'90s, when it had moved to chickens, which are affected.

Authorities in Hong Kong, Korea, and Japan appeared to contain the flu by destroying entire flocks where the virus was detected. But last year, a more potent avian flu virus reemerged in Southeast Asia ravaging thousands of both farm and free-range chickens.

After the first human cases, the Thai government destroyed millions more birds. Several dozen people have been infected in Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam, three quarters of them fatally. In all but one case, the disease has spread from birds to humans, humans who had long exposure to the virus, like poultry farm workers.

But scientists worry the virus, which is called H5N1, is always mutating or evolving and may soon begin to move easily from person to person just like regular flu. Dr. William Aldis is with the World Health Organization.

DR. WILLIAM ALDIS: We have good reason to fear that if the H5N1 virus that's now widely established in chicken and duck and wildfowl population in probably ten countries, that it would take only a very small genetic change or modification in that virus to make it rapidly transmissible to people.

FRED DE SAM LAZARO: That, he said, would quickly trigger a worldwide pandemic.

DR. WILLIAM ALDIS: The movement of people around the world and the movement of infectious agents around the world means that the risk facing one country is facing all countries almost equally. We saw that with SARS. I would say the difference between SARS and avian influenza is the stakes are much higher

FRED DE SAM LAZARO: Late in 2002, an outbreak of SARS, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, began in southern China but spread rapidly across the world killing a tenth of the 8,000 people affected. The toll from avian flu could dwarf SARS and even the 1918 Spanish Flu that killed 20 million, according to Michael Osterholm epidemiologist at the university of Minnesota.

DR. MICHAEL OSTERHOLM: If one takes a look at the 1918 pandemic that swept around the world, literally in weeks, and extrapolate those number of deaths then to what we might expect to see today, we could easily see 1.7 million deaths in the United States in one year and up to 360 million deaths worldwide.

FRED DE SAM LAZARO: Public health experts say it's no longer a question of if, but rather when a major bird flu pandemic will hit. The challenge now is to try to contain it so that so the world can become better prepared when it hits.

Thailand's approach to avian flu is being closely watched by World Health Organization and by U.S. experts. The country has long had a system of village health volunteers. Each is in charge of checking on the health of about ten neighbors.

Throughout the country, they're now being deployed to look closely for bird flu. Volunteers try to survey bird populations and must report any ill health in animals or people to local authorities. Sick birds are tested for avian flu and positive findings bring a rapid response.

SPOKESPERSON: He says this is the pit where we buried the chickens, ducks and geese.

FRED DE SAM LAZARO: In this small village, headman Vicharn Wanna says took about an hour to round up all the chickens from the village's 137 households. Sick and healthy, they were all destroyed.

SPOKESPERSON: For each chicken they get 50 baht or about $1.25.

FRED DE SAM LAZARO: Even with compensation, Thai farmers and peasants don't fully recover their losses when birds are culled, especially if they are fighting cocks which can fetch up to $1,000. There's worry that owners may be reluctant to report sick poultry. But Thai officials say they are making some progress. Dr. Supamit Chunsuttiwat is with the Ministry of Public Health.

DR. SUPAMIT CHUNSUTTIWAT, Thai Ministry of Public Health: In first round, we had 12 cases; in second round we had five. And since then, the surveillance on both sides, on the animal side and on the human side, have been carried out at full scale, up until now. We have been on high alert to detect the cases in humans as best as possible and we haven't found a case since October up until now.

FRED DE SAM LAZARO: In two border provinces, the surveillance has been intensified in a special joint project with the U.S. Centers for Disease Control.

Here in Sakaeo province on Thailand's border with Cambodia, the entire population, over a half million people, is being watched for any signs of respiratory disease or pneumonia. Specimens are analyzed both here and at the CDC in Atlanta, where X-rays are sent electronically. Epidemiologist Sonja Olsen likens it to a listening post for diseases in their earliest stages.

DR. SONJA OLSEN: It may be possible to actually stop an outbreak before it were a pandemic. I think that's sort of a new way of thinking. In the past we thought when the next pandemic influenza hits, you know, we will just try to do the best we can to prevent, you know, additional deaths or do what we can. I think now the thinking is if we can identify it at the source, and stop it, then maybe we can potentially prevent a pandemic

FRED DE SAM LAZARO: No one's sure it will work, but one reason for optimism is that unlike the SARS outbreak, countries are far more willing to admit early on that they might have a problem, according to Dr. Scott Dowell who heads CDC's Thailand office.

DR. SCOTT DOWELL: At the beginning of bird flu epidemic, we saw some of the old approach of, "Well, we're not sure this is the Bird Flu," from various countries, a failure to acknowledge or confirm the problem.

That was when it was viewed as primarily an economic issue or an agricultural problem. Very quickly when you saw it move to human populations, it very quickly changed to a really transparent response from most countries in this region, and I think the lesson from SARS helped with that.

FRED DE SAM LAZARO: But communication is just one part of preparing for a pandemic and Dr. Dowell worries there may not be time.

DR. SCOTT DOWELL: Again, if the question is, "Are we ready in this part of the world to respond to a pandemic," I think the answer has to be no.

FRED DE SAM LAZARO: And that applies not just to Southeast Asia, says Dr. Supamit.

DR. SUPAMIT CHUNSUTTIWAT: If a pandemic comes in a few months, no one is able to help himself. No country is in the position of better enough preparedness, even the United States or Europe.

FRED DE SAM LAZARO: He says Thailand is working with neighbors and the World Health Organization to develop a region-wide strategy to respond to outbreaks.

DR. SUPAMIT CHUNSUTTIWAT: If we were lucky enough, we would be able to work together to come up with some vaccines or anti-virals before the pandemic strikes us.

FRED DE SAM LAZARO: Worldwide stockpiles of antiviral drugs are well short of what's needed. Also, it would also take months after an actual human outbreak to develop a vaccine. In an upcoming article for the New England Journal of Medicine, Osterholm argues a plan is urgently needed.

DR. MICHAEL OSTERHOLM: How are we going to handle our everyday lives here in this country to make sure that we can deal with sick people? What do we do to assure that people continue to have a food supply once transportation is shut down? How will we manage the basic business of life when up to half the population may become ill and 5 percent of those will die? Those plans have to be made right now.

FRED DE SAM LAZARO: It is ironic, scientists say, that sophisticated molecular biology today can help anticipate an epidemic, and yet the world remains as vulnerable to devastation as it was a century ago.


Online News Hour: Dead Geese in China Prompt Fears Over Bird Flu Pandemic –

May 26,2005

RAY SUAREZ: Throughout the past week, there have been new alarms and new calls to action about a possible flu pandemic. It all stems from a deadly flu strain passed from birds to humans. The strain, known as H5-N1, and more commonly referred to as Avian Flu, turned up again this winter in Southeast Asia, leading to new cases in Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia.

So far, there have been 97 recorded human cases and 53 deaths since 2004. While those numbers are not so large now, the World Health Organization reports the virus is continuing to mutate in ways that makes it increasingly infectious to people. And today the scientific journal Nature devoted much of its issue to the subject, warning of a potential pandemic that could kill millions if preparations did not improve.

For a closer look at all of this, I'm joined by Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. He wrote a commentary in today's issue of Nature. And Laurie Garrett -- she runs the global health program at the Council on Foreign Relations.

Dr. Fauci, one of the core issues, I guess, for understanding this disease is what we know about how it gets passed from birds to humans and whether humans pass it to other humans. Do we have a good handle on that yet?

DR. ANTHONY FAUCI: We know it has already jumped from birds to humans, and that's the thing that is the first part of the real concern, because this is a virus, the H5-N1, which the human society has had no prior experience with. So there's no residual or baseline immunity. It's a brand-new thing for them, which means that the protection that we generally get from year to year.

Like right now this season the regular seasonal flu was an H3-N2, was a little bit different than last year's H3-N2, a little different than the previous year, but we have cumulative experience. The H5-N1 is a major shift. As we call it, those little changes are drifts. And what happens is that you get chickens infected and this virus has adapted itself to jump from chickens to humans in Asia.

The biggest focus right now is in Vietnam. When it gets efficiency in going from human to human, and viruses tend to evolve, to go toward that which will help propagate it -- there have been now 97 infections, as you mentioned, and 53 deaths. So it's still inefficient in going from bird to human. There have been two well-documented cases of human-to-human.

So by mutation or adapting itself, it very likely could get better and better in its efficiency in going from human to human. Once that happens, Ray, then you have a really bad situation, because if it spreads widely, you have people who have no prior experience, so they don't have any baseline immunity to respond rapidly.

The other important point is that this is a very highly lethal virus; it's killed 53 out of the 97 documented cases. It's unlike what we see in the regular flu, which is less than 1 percent. So the potential for this being a really serious problem is there, and nothing that's happening is telling us that it's going in the other direction. It keeps going in the direction that is making us quite anxious. It's increasing its host range, and it's changing ways, there are more clusters that are not explainable. So we have a very serious situation here.

RAY SUAREZ: Laurie Garrett, what's the best scientific opinion if you survey about how much of the threat Avian Flu poses worldwide and Asia in particular?

LAURIE GARRETT: Well, certainly in the public health community and in the community of virologists that know a lot about flu, concern is very, very high. I was just at the World Health Assembly, which is the governing body of the World Health Organization, for a week of meetings in Geneva, and everybody was talking about flu.

It's the number-one concern on the minds of most global health experts right now. And there are a number of reasons why this year we're more worried than we have been in my lifetime. We've seen this H5-N1 strain, which is unlike any strain, as Dr. Fauci was explaining, human beings have ever seen before. So you don't have antibodies to it; I don't have antibodies to it.

As far as we know, nobody has antibodies to it. We've seen this thing go through a series of mutational changes over the last two, three years, and just very recently it's been confirmed -- actually just today -- confirmed by the Indonesian government that they've identified an outbreak of it in pigs in Indonesia.

This is very worrying, because what this means is that the virus may have found a way to infect another species of mammals, big difference from infecting birds, Ray. If it starts infecting pigs and other mammals, then it's a quick leap to whatever genetic change is necessary for this virus to evolve into the kind of flu that is incredibly contagious from person to person.

And it's important to understand, when we talk about contagious viruses -- and I know lots of people have heard of the so-called scary ones like Ebola and Marburg -- these are actually really hard to get compared to flu. This influenza virus can sit on a doorknob for six days and still be infectious to somebody who comes along six days later; someone rubs their hand on that doorknob and, as we all do, happens to infect themselves.

It is so infectious, so contagious that at the World Health Organization meetings I was at, people are really tearing their hair out trying to figure out how we could control it, how could can stop it from spreading all over the world. Our host of classic ways of dealing with public health problems of various kinds is very, very limited in this case.

RAY SUAREZ: Well, is there, Dr. Fauci, a public health approach to seal up something like a flu in a geographical area? Laurie Garrett mentioned Ebola and Marburg. Those haven't spread worldwide. Is there a way with a flu like this to just cordon it off?

DR. ANTHONY FAUCI: Yes and no. Because, as Laurie said very accurately, it spreads so rapidly that it isn't the kind of thing that's easily containable. But, having said that, good public health measures of identification, reporting accurately and in a transparent way, when you get the opportunity to isolate people, and the president himself signed a quarantine, an executive order to be able to quarantine and add pandemic flu to the list of quarantinable diseases.

But it's a combination of public health measures, coordination among nations, vaccine and drugs. Now, the problem that we're facing, we have assumed that this is serious enough that we are already in trials of an H5-N1 vaccine that we started in April. We've already completed the first two stages of it in healthy adults. We're going to analyze the data for safety and what's the right dose because, unlike the regular flu vaccine, where you know you can give one dose and get a good immunity.

Since we haven't seen this before, it is likely that we'll have to use a higher dose and/or two vaccinations. When this data comes, we'll move to the elderly and then we'll go to children. The problem is that the vaccine-manufacturing capacity of the world is only anywhere between 300 million and 450 million. There are six billion people in the world.

So we have a problem with capacity that even if we don't -- and it is likely we don't -- even though we're very concerned, Laurie and I and many others, that we'll have a problem soon, if we don't have it this year, this isn't something that's going to just disappear. This is here to stay. We will have a pandemic sometime. It may be this year, next year, the year later.

And what we're concerned about is that we've got to build up the capacity to have countermeasures in the form of vaccines and therapeutics as opposed to saying, "We got through this year; let's just go back to square one." We have a vaccine production industry that is in fact very, very fragile, and we actually discussed this on this show not too long ago when we were dealing with the shortages of flu vaccine from the previous winter.

RAY SUAREZ: So, Laurie Garrett, does the world end up on the horns of a paradox again where those countries that are most able to provide vaccine to their people are actually the places least in threat of having an Avian Flu outbreak, while the places that are most threatened are the least able to respond?

LAURIE GARRETT: It's worse than that, Ray. I mean, the problem is when you sit down with a global organization like WHO, 192 member countries, everybody passes a resolution saying, "We're very worried about pandemic flu; we're terribly concerned this could be the year that we see a flu that could take millions and millions of lives worldwide."

Well, then you pass a series of resolutions. You must stockpile drugs, you must try to make vaccine; you should have a national plan of action. All those are great to talk about in the context of a wealthy country like the United States or any of the European countries.

But what do you say to Chad? What do you say to Tanzania? What do you say to Vietnam? Poor countries can't muster up the kinds of plans we're talking about. And worse yet, in 1918, we did not have hundreds of millions of people with immune deficiency in the world -- immune deficiency either because they were elderly, cancer patients, or probably most significant because they had HIV disease and did not have access to drugs to treat the HIV disease.

We basically have the equivalent of a hillside of dry brush, when you think about Africa right now and the amount of HIV there, where you're lighting a match at one end and just watching that fire burn up that hill. That's what pandemic flu might be when it hits Africa.

RAY SUAREZ: Let me get a quick response on that point from Dr. Fauci. Are we getting ready enough in advance to help stave off some of the worst effects?

DR. ANTHONY FAUCI: There's no doubt this is the number-one priority of secretary Levitt in the Department of Health and Human Services rights now. We meet virtually daily about this. I mentioned the vaccine trial. We've stockpiled Tamiflu, which is the drug that this particular microbe is sensitive to. We don't have enough. It's 2.3 million treatment courses.

We need a lot more, and we'll get a lot more. So we're being very proactive about it. Again, being proactive is what we need to do, but this is such an enormous problem involving the entire global community, as Laurie mentioned, that we alone, even though we are far ahead of others in this regard, we alone are not going to solve the problem. It's got to be global collaboration.

RAY SUAREZ: Anthony Fauci, Laurie Garrett, thank you both.


Medical News Today spoke about the concerns of our government's subcommittee in the following article:

Preparedness for Avian Flu - US House Energy and Commerce Subcommittee Hearing Highlights Concerns

30 May 2005

A US Government Accountability Office official on Thursday at a House Energy and Commerce... Health Subcommittee hearing said that the United States remains unprepared for a potential avian flu pandemic, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports. According to Marcia Crosse, health care director at GAO, an HHS draft pandemic plan completed in August 2004 does not include instructions on management of a limited supply of vaccine, whether to restrict travel, or impose quarantines or deployment of federal resources (Nesmith, Atlanta Journal-Constitution, 5/27). Crosse also said hospitals remain unprepared to address local epidemics. Health officials interviewed by GAO said that a pandemic could affect the capacity of hospitals if they have to close certain sections to serve as isolation wards, she added. "Moreover, a shortage in work force could increase during an influenza pandemic because higher disease rates could result in high rates of absenteeism among health care workers," Crosse said (CQ HealthBeat, 5/26). CDC Director Julie Gerberding acknowledged that the pandemic plan requires additional provisions, such as instructions on whether to isolate or quarantine infected individuals and those with whom they have had contact. Bruce Gellin, director of the National Vaccine Program Office at HHS, said that the department will complete the pandemic plan this summer (Atlanta Journal-Constitution, 5/27). According to Gerberding, health officials have found "isolated clusters" of avian flu infections worldwide and continue to work to determine whether human-to-human transmission has occurred (CQ HealthBeat, 5/26).

Treatment Concerns
Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases at NIH, said that the agency has begun to test an experimental avian flu vaccine that should "provide some degree of protection" and that CDC has ordered more than two million doses of the vaccine (Atlanta Journal-Constitution, 5/27). NIH plans to complete tests on the safety and effectiveness of the vaccine by this summer. However, in the event of a pandemic, "it isn't as if overnight we're going to be able to get a vaccine for everyone who needs a vaccine" because of issues with production. Gerberding added that "we would have to count on a six-month window before we have full-scale global vaccine production" (CQ HealthBeat, 5/26). Rep. Mike Ferguson (R-N.J.) also said that CDC should have ordered more than 2.3 million doses of the antiviral medication Tamiflu, which appears effective against avian flu. "I'm sure you will agree with me that that is a mere pittance. It's nothing near what we will need to deal with a flu epidemic. We're staring down a loaded gun," he said. Gerberding said that Tamiflu is only effective when taken in the first 48 hours after infections, adding, "Many people don't even know they have influenza during the first two days" (Atlanta Journal-Constitution, 5/27). She also said that CDC might order additional doses of Tamiflu in the future (CQ HealthBeat, 5/26).

A GAO report on flu is available online. Note: you must have Adobe Acrobat Reader to view the report.


In her concluding observations, Marcia Crosse, Director, Health Care warned

United States Government Accountability Office


Before the Subcommittee on Health,

Committee on Energy and Commerce,

House of Representatives


Challenges Remain in Preparedness



“Since 2000, we have been urging the department to complete its pandemic

plan. A draft plan was issued in August 2004, with a 60-day period for

public comment, but as of this week [May 26, 2005], the plan had not been finalized. It is

important for the federal government and the states to work through

issues such as how vaccine will be purchased, distributed, and

administered, how population groups will be prioritized for vaccination, what quarantine authorities or travel restrictions may need to be invoked,

and how federal resources should be deployed before we are in a time of




Scientists are desperately scrambling to push the governments of this world into action. Even our government is lacking in preparation for this potential pandemic. They are being encouraged to stockpile Tamiflu, which may be an effective treatment option while scientists work on a vaccine. It would require about 70 million doses to cover 25% of the U.S. population. Only 5.3 million doses have been ordered.


G-d in His mercy is warning us to prepare. Even those of the scientific world realize the desperate need to prepare, although they know the death toll will be great. 







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